Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $222,669$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267,531.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 85.9)}}\) (asimptote \(267,531.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,508$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,349.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,349.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $28,851$ on 2020-06-28

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,942$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(929 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,311.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 92.7)}}\) (asimptote \(45,311.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $348$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(25.3 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{359.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(359.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,100$ on 2020-06-28

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $197,239$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,755.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,755.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,097$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,789.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,789.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,547$ on 2020-06-28

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,705$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(383 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,471.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,471.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(0.507 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,105$ on 2020-06-28

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $182,493$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(5.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{261,193.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 94.6)}}\) (asimptote \(261,193.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,551$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(40 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,434.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,434.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,187$ on 2020-06-28

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $45,402$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(35.9 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{579,841.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(579,841.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,756$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(0.476 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,524$ on 2020-06-28

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $94,413$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,826.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(104,826.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 92.3)}}\) (asimptote \(229.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,601$ on 2020-06-28

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $23,755$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,375.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,375.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $318$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(97.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{295.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(295.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,363$ on 2020-06-28

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malaysia recovered 92%
Turkey recovered 73%
Singapore recovered 72%
Georgia recovered 66%
Sri Lanka recovered 61%
Qatar recovered 56%
United Arab Emirates recovered 36%
Tajikistan recovered 29%
Iran recovered 17%

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,634$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(2.22 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,239.0}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 41.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,239.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $121$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(58.5 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(78.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 17.9)}}\) (asimptote \(116.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $195$ on 2020-06-28

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,459$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,522.6}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 102.5)}}\) (asimptote \(42,522.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(7.47 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.0}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.0)}}\) (asimptote \(26.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,925$ on 2020-06-28

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $924$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(160 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{881.5}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 52.1)}}\) (asimptote \(881.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(4.76 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{13.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 26.0)}}\) (asimptote \(13.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $124$ on 2020-06-28

Sri Lanka⮸

Population $21,413,249$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,037$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(213 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,277.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 64.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,277.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11$ on 2020-06-28

Best fit exponential: \(5.95 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(85.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 13.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $365$ on 2020-06-28