Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $222,669$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267,531.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 85.9)}}\) (asimptote \(267,531.6\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10,508$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,349.8}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(9,349.8\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,851$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,942$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(929 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,311.4}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 92.7)}}\) (asimptote \(45,311.4\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $348$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(25.3 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{359.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(359.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,100$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $197,239$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{177,755.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(177,755.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,097$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(1.3 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,789.9}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,789.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,547$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,705$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(383 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,471.1}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 115.6)}}\) (asimptote \(41,471.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(0.507 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.3\) days)
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,105$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $182,493$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(5.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{261,193.3}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 94.6)}}\) (asimptote \(261,193.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,551$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(40 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,434.9}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.1)}}\) (asimptote \(7,434.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $56,187$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $45,402$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(35.9 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{579,841.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 151.2)}}\) (asimptote \(579,841.4\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,756$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(0.476 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,524$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $94,413$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,826.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 89.6)}}\) (asimptote \(104,826.4\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(2.48 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 92.3)}}\) (asimptote \(229.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $15,601$ on 2020-06-28
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $23,755$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,375.8}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(18,375.8\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $318$ on 2020-06-28
Best fit exponential: \(97.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{295.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(295.7\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,363$ on 2020-06-28